Authors

Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Department of Public Health, London, United Kingdom
Yuming Guo, Monash University, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Melbourne, Australia
Francesco Sera, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Department of Public Health, London, United Kingdom
Veronika Huber, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
Carl Friedrich Schleussner, Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung, Potsdam, Germany
Dann Mitchell, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom
Shilu Tong, Queensland University of Technology QUT, School of Public Health and Social Work, Brisbane, Australia
Micheline De Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Universidade de Sao Paulo - USP, Department of Pathology, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Paulo Hilário Nascimento Nascimento Saldiva, Universidade de Sao Paulo - USP, Institute for Advanced Studies, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Éric Lavigne, University of Ottawa, Canada, School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Ottawa, Canada
Patricia Matus Correa, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Department of Public Health, Santiago, Chile
Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Department of Public Health, Santiago, Chile
Haidong Kan, Fudan University, School of Public Health, Shanghai, China
Samuel Osorio, Universidade de Sao Paulo - USP, Department of Environmental Health, Sao Paulo, Brazil
Jan Kyselý, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Prague,
Aleš Urban, Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague, Czech Republic
Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Oulun Yliopisto, Oulu, Finland
Niilo R.I. Ryti, Oulun Yliopisto, Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, Oulu, Finland
Mathilde Pascal, French National Public Health Agency, Santé Publique France, Saint-Maurice, France
Pat Goodman, Dublin Institute of TechnologyFollow
Ariana Zeka, Brunel University London, Institute of Environment, Uxbridge, United Kingdom
Paola Michelozzi, ASL Rome E, Department of Epidemiology, Rome, Italy
Matteo Scortichini, Lazio Regional Health Service, Department of Epidemiology, Rome, Italy
Masahiro Hashizume, Nagasaki University, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Japan
Yasushi Honda, University of Tsukuba, Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan
Magali Hurtado-Díaz, Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica, Environmental Health Department, Cuernavaca, Mexico
Julio Gonzalez Cruz, Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica, Department of Environmental Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico
Xerxes T. Seposo, Kyoto University, Department of Global Ecology, Kyoto, Japan
Ho Kim, Seoul National University, Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul, South Korea
Aurelio Tobías, CSIC - Instituto de Diagnostico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA), Barcelona, Spain
Carmen Iñiguez Fernández, Unidad Mixta de Investigación en Epidemiología y Salud Ambiental, Valencia, Spain
Bertil Forsberg, Umea Universitet, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea, Sweden
Daniel Oudin Åström, Umea Universitet, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea, Sweden
Martina S. Ragettli, Universitat Basel, Basel, Switzerland
Martin Röösli, Universitat Basel, Basel, Switzerland
Yueleon Guo, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Department of Occupational & Environmental Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
Chang-fu Wu, National Taiwan University, Department of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
Antonella Zanobetti, Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, United States
Joel D. Schwartz, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Boston, Department of Environmental Health, Boston, United States
Michelle L. Bell, Yale University, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, New Haven, United States
Tranngoc Ngoc Dang, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Department of Environmental Health, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
Dung Do Van, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Faculty of Public Health, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
C. Heaviside, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Department of Public Health, London, United Kingdom
Sotiris Vardoulakis, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Department of Public Health, London, United Kingdom
Shakoor Hajat, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Department of Public Health, London, United Kingdom
Andrew Haines, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
Ben G. Armstrong, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Department of Public Health, London, United Kingdom
Kristie L. Ebi, University of Washington, Seattle, Department of Global Health, Seattle, United States
Antonio Gasparrini, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Department of Public Health, London, United Kingdom

Document Type

Other

Rights

This item is available under a Creative Commons License for non-commercial use only

Disciplines

1.5 EARTH AND RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, Environmental sciences

Abstract

The Paris Agreement binds all nations to undertake ambitious efforts to combat climate change, with the commitment to Bhold warming well below 2 °C in global mean temperature (GMT), relative to pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5 °C^. The 1.5 °C limit constitutes an ambitious goal for which greater evidence on its benefits for health would help guide policy and potentially increase the motivation for action. Here we contribute to this gap with an assessment on the potential health benefits, in terms of reductions in temperature-related mortality, derived from the compliance to the agreed temperature targets, compared to more extreme warming scenarios. We performed a multi-region analysis in 451 locations in 23 countries with different climate zones, and evaluated changes in heat and coldrelated mortality under scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement targets (1.5 and 2 °C) and more extreme GMT increases (3 and 4 °C), and under the assumption of no changes in demographic distribution and vulnerability. Our results suggest that limiting warming below 2 °C could prevent large increases in temperature-related mortality in most regions worldwide. The comparison between 1.5 and 2 °C is more complex and characterized by higher uncertainty, with geographical differences that indicate potential benefits limited to areas located in warmer climates, where direct climate change impacts will be more discernible.

DOI

10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3

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