Copyright (c) 2013 Dublin Institute of Technology All rights reserved. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart Recent documents in Articles en-us Wed, 15 May 2013 11:09:07 PDT 3600 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/21 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/21 Fri, 19 Apr 2013 07:15:41 PDT In recent decades, Ireland has been an important example of a development pathway where rapid economic growth was accompanied by rising energy demand and increasing carbon emissions. Understanding the driving forces of carbon emissions is necessary for policy formulation and decomposition analysis is widely used for this purpose. This study uses an extended Kaya identity as the scheme and applies the log mean Divisia index (LMDI I) as the decomposition technique. Change in carbon emissions is decomposed from 1990 – 2010 and includes a measure of the effect of renewable energy penetration. Results illustrate that scale effects of affluence and population growth act to increase emissions and are countered primarily by energy intensity and fossil fuel substitution. Renewable energy penetration has a minor effect but has been increasing in recent years. Policy will need to significantly reduce intensity and increase renewables if applicable targets are to be reached. This requires not only a comprehensive suite of policies and measures but emphasis on the development path and ‘non-technical’ change for optimal outcomes.

]]> Tadhg O´ Mahony http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/20 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/20 Fri, 05 Apr 2013 07:55:24 PDT In recent decades, Ireland has been an important example of a development pathway where rapid economic growth was accompanied by rising energy demand and increasing carbon emissions. Understanding the driving forces of carbon emissions is necessary for policy formulation and decomposition analysis is widely used for this purpose. This study uses an extended Kaya identity as the scheme and applies the log mean Divisia index (LMDI I) as the decomposition technique. Change in carbon emissions is decomposed from 1990 – 2010 and includes a measure of the effect of renewable energy penetration. Results illustrate that scale effects of affluence and population growth act to increase emissions and are countered primarily by energy intensity and fossil fuel substitution. Renewable energy penetration has a minor effect but has been increasing in recent years. Policy will need to significantly reduce intensity and increase renewables if applicable targets are to be reached. This requires not only a comprehensive suite of policies and measures but emphasis on the development path and ‘non-technical’ change for optimal outcomes.

]]> Tadhg O'Mahony http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/19 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/19 Wed, 21 Mar 2012 10:48:21 PDT Ireland recorded significant growth in energy-related carbon emissions from 1990 to 2007 as the country underwent rapid economic development. Using the LMDI decomposition analysis method, this paper aims to identify and analyse the driving forces of CO2 emissions in eleven final energy consuming sectors. This multi-sectoral analysis is based on four economic sectors, the residential sector and gives a detailed representation of transport in keeping with UNFCCC recommendations. Scale, structure and intensity effects are explored and substantial heterogeneity in sectoral performance is observed. Scale growth in economic and transport activity was considerable. Some improvements in energy intensity were recorded in the economic sectors. In transport, increases in intensity contributed to a significant increase in emissions, while energy intensity decreased in the residential sector. The declining emissions coefficient of electricity was important in limiting emissions but renewable energy has been slow to penetrate the demand side. The results have relevance in considering development paths and can aid in identifying policy measures required to address the key driving forces of emissions in the sectors. The rapid increase in transport emissions in particular raises concerns of future lock-in to a higher emissions trajectory.

]]> Tadhg O'Mahony et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/18 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/18 Mon, 10 Jan 2011 11:17:12 PST This paper aims to demonstrate that it is important to have a methodological process that is reflexive and flexible to achieve fluid interactions that add rigour and energy to the overall process of a built environment project. Therefore, it outlines three phases of the Prospective Through Scenarios futures process used in a study called the “Workplace of the Future”. It also discusses how and why the methodology evolved during the course of the project with participant feedback as the main source of information for the analysis. Furthermore, novel qualitative futures techniques have been applied to a discipline that is usually reactive and quantitative.

]]> Ruth Saurin et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/17 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/17 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 08:10:48 PDT We are living in times of turbulence and complex changes without precedent in history. It is becoming increasingly evident that humans are an intrinsic component of nature in that their actions affect both the biotic and abiotic environments, and are in turn affected by everything that shapes those environments. In evolutionary terms, population growth, societal restructuring, exhaustion of natural resources and technological advancements have usually been so slow as to be indiscernible during an individual lifetime. However, in the past two centuries the global economy has shown exponential growth, transforming the character of the planet and especially of human life (Mebratu, 1998). If this rate of transformation is sustained without strategic planning for the future, the consequences for the long-term well being of humanity are frightening. Anticipation of and preparation for the future is essential to achieving sustainable development. However, the potential for linking ‘futures thinking’ to debates about sustainable development is very undeveloped at global level. This paper examines the future of sustainable development in Europe with specific reference to the application of the growing field of futures thinking as a vehicle to achieve it.

]]> Ruth Kelly http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/16 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/16 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 08:10:46 PDT Julie Gannon http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/15 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/15 Thu, 03 Sep 2009 08:10:44 PDT This paper seeks to establish a framework for studying real estate futures. In doing so, it explores the general climate of change within which property decisions will have to be made, and examines the specific real estate opportunities that might emerge as a result of that change. For the purpose of appraisal, the forces of change are grouped into six sectors - cultural, demographic, economic, environmental, governmental and technological. Property perspectives are then portrayed for each of these sectors, and some conclusions drawn regarding the likely directions of change in the fields of real estate investment, development and management. Above all, the paper aims to provoke thought and provide a means for identifying and evaluating the forces of change as they affect decision making in the real estate industry.

]]> John Ratcliffe http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/14 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/14 Fri, 28 Nov 2008 07:57:36 PST Elzbieta Krawczyk http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/13 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/13 Fri, 28 Nov 2008 07:54:27 PST The scenario method has been widely used by decision-makers in business, industry and government for over thirty years as an unrivalled technique to learn about the future before it happens. This paper examines the principles, practice and pitfalls of scenario building with the prime aim of presenting the technique as one singularly relevant to the study of future property investment, development and management decisions and land use policy formulation. The origins of the approach from its military based beginnings, through the popularised global environmental applications to the current widescale use by industry and commerce are traced. Some definitions are advanced to demonstrate the multi-various nature of the method, and different types of scenario identified to show their adaptability and agility. The general purpose of the technique as a learning mechanism for organisations is explored, and the step-by-step process of scenario building specifically analysed. Conclusions are drawn which record the success of scenario building in many fields other than property and predict the adoption of the scenario approach as the principal behavioural technique for determining corporate real estate strategy in the future.

]]> John Ratcliffe http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/12 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/12 Fri, 28 Nov 2008 07:51:03 PST This paper is primarily about the Scenario Method. How scenario building, planning or learning exercises can profitably be used to identify, develop and test alternative plans, policies and practices that might be proposed in exploring and preparing for strategic decision-making in the construction industry. The method has been widely used in business, industry and government for over thirty years as an unrivalled technique to learn about the future before it happens. The paper examines the principles, practice and pitfalls of Scenario Building with the prime aim of presenting the technique as one singularly relevant to the study of the construction industry. It also identifies some of the driving forces, societal issues and policy strategies that confront Ireland in devising a suitable approach towards learning about and planning for the future.

]]> John Ratcliffe http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/11 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/11 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 07:26:51 PST We are currently living through an era where we can, and need to, create exciting new possibilities in the way we think about, plan, design and build new places and spaces for working and living. At the same time, two irresistible forces – change and complexity – face decision-makers charged with framing and executing future policy and practice for the built and human environment. This paper generally argues the case for employing a ‘prospective’ process through scenario thinking for strategic planning and management in the urban arena. It does not attempt to identify or explore the advances made in planning for built and human environment over recent years or the promise of those to come. Rather, it describes and promotes a methodology which helps organisations, such as those involved in the formation of the urban environment, to learn their way into the future in a complex and changing world of uncertainty and ambiguity.

]]> John Ratcliffe et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/10 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/10 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 07:24:40 PST Contemporary cities can be characterised by a high pace of change and the growing complexity of their systems. Technological, economic and social evolution brings transformation that needs to be dealt with and accommodated in order to sustain consistent harmonious growth. Many cities are not prepared to adapt to these changes. This results in a vast range of urban problems. The rapid growth of Dublin during the last decade has intensified infrastructural and transportation problems. A number of institutions have been addressing these difficulties through the application of various solutions. This paper presents an attempt to address the lack of efficient integration between transportation and land use in Dublin through the application of the futures methodology – Prospective. Futures methodologies assist in understanding the main forces driving change; enable the creation of images of possible and desired futures; and help to generate recommendations and action plans to solve the existing problems in a rigorous, systematic and comprehensive manner. This paper presents the methodology itself, the applied process and the results of the study.

]]> Elzbieta Krawczyk http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/9 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/9 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 07:23:28 PST The technological revolution has resulted in fundamental changes as to how and where people work, live and play in modern day society. This has been coupled with unprecedented growth in certain developed countries and has culminated in the creation of new economies based on service provision. Such change has brought with it challenges commonly associated with unpredicted growth; traffic congestion, urban sprawl, the abandonment of inner cities, poor access to education and a perceived lack of affordable housing. However, people now want fewer hours in traffic and more opportunities to enjoy green space, and housing that is both affordable and close to jobs and social activities. They also want healthy cities, towns and suburbs, air and water of the highest quality and a landscape that future generations can be proud to inherit. Advocates in favour of changing from the current development route feel that Smart Development offers the best chance of attaining those goals. Allied to this belief is the recognition of the benefits that accrue out of brownfield redevelopment. One part of the solution proposes the use of future methods like Prospective, to facilitate the adoption of the principles of Smart Development through techniques Scenario Planning. This paper will: • Describe how the global backcloth is changing; • Explain how cities have moved centre stage; • Examine how traditional planning has failed; • Describe the theory and practice of Smart Development; • Explain why there is a need for a Futures approach. In a world with increasing concerns regarding land use and property development, this paper demonstrates possible roles for future methodologies in the mitigation of these issues. The conclusions to be drawn from this paper are that new innovative and creative methods will be needed to ensure neighbourhoods, towns, and regions accommodate growth in ways that are economically sound, environmentally responsible and socially supportive of community livability. The paper will conclude that achieving smarter land use will require a change in the current mind-set and will include encouraging brownfield redevelopment. This will result in greater usage of futures methods like Prospective as policy makers grasp the nettle and witness the benefits of adopting alternative modes of policy evaluation and implementation in landuse.

]]> Dorothy Stewart http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/8 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/8 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:15:30 PST In an increasingly globalising and competitive world, cities are facing unparalleled challenges relating to such forces as economic restructuring and fiscal stress, national security, institutional relationships and the changing role of governance, environmental degradation, social and cultural transformation and rising exclusion. In May 2005, The Futures Academy, Dublin Institute of Technology, in collaboration with the Urban Land Institute (ULI), embarked on a joint initiative to stimulate thinking and encourage informed discussions concerning the future trajectory and sustainable development of the competitive ‘global city’. As part of this study, The Academy undertook in-depth background research including a comprehensive questionnaire survey; an interactive and participatory futures brainstorming workshop; and roundtable discussions addressing emerging concepts, challenges and uncertainties surrounding the ‘global city’ debate. This paper sets out the findings of this investigation and provides a contextual background of the challenges, driving forces, issues and trends shaping the evolution of the global city in the next twenty- five years. The paper discusses how issues such as liveability, economic and demographic changes, the environment and civic leadership will influence cities and elucidates how cities might position themselves in order to move towards a sustainable urban future.

]]> Ruth Kelly et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/7 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/7 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:15:25 PST This paper argues that urban planners and policy-makers lack an effective future-oriented approach enabling them to comprehend current complexity, anticipate impending change and shape a preferred future condition. In doing so it: - reviews the performance of contemporary city planning; - examines the need to chart and navigate the city technosphere by reference to city capital; - explores ways in which planning can benefit from a futures studies approach; - describes generally how futures-oriented thinking can produce effective city prospective; and, - poses specifically a number of questions regarding the concept of the intelligent city’. The paper concludes by calling for the formulation of a Unified Theory for Sustainable Cities by reference to Gaia and the application of futures-oriented technology assessment.

]]> John Ratcliffe et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/6 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/6 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 06:15:22 PST John Ratcliffe et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/5 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/5 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 05:49:58 PST Municipal authorities throughout Western Europe are attempting to drive regeneration of their urban centres through policies designed to attract inward investment and tourism. In an attempt to woo these outside economic agents in, a variety of cultural consumption oriented policies have been developed and marketed. These include investment in hard cultural-infrastructure such as museums or art galleries, and in less physical aspects such as holding events like the European Capital of Culture. A polemical debate surrounds this use of cultural policy with a clearly economic agenda. This paper gives a brief synopsis of some culture-led regeneration models, addresses the validity of arguments from both sides of the debate, and in the year that Cork 2005 celebrates its year as European Capital of Culture, looks at how the event brings the battle out into the public domain.

]]> Luke Binns http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/4 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/4 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 05:49:57 PST Elzbieta Krawczyk et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/3 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/3 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 05:49:55 PST Thinking about the future of humanity cannot be separated from thinking about the future of cities. Today, half of the world’s population lives in cities and the number of urban dwellers is constantly growing. On one hand, cities play a key role in generating economic growth; they are cores of human activity and frontiers of technological and cultural progress. On the other, urban areas are a source of a broad range of social and environmental problems and are especially vulnerable to the threats posed by factors such as climate change, terrorism, pandemic, social and cultural clashes. Considering the role and situation of cities today, it becomes evident that a change in ways of thinking and acting about the future of cities is required in order to ensure their prosperous and sustainable development in the future. This paper argues that futures methodologies can stimulate that change by providing a fresh, systematic, imaginative and innovative approach for the examination of possible, probable and desirable urban futures. On the outset, the paper explores the reasons behind the recent growth of interest in the application of futures methodologies in urban planning. It discusses the shortcomings of the current planning approach towards the future and outlines in which way futures methodologies can assist communities and decision-makers in envisioning and creating the desired future. Finally, the authors present the Prospective methodology model that can be used to promote and facilitate the shift in ways of thinking and acting about the future of cities.

]]> Elzbieta Krawczyk et al. http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/2 http://arrow.dit.ie/futuresacart/2 Tue, 25 Nov 2008 05:15:32 PST Julie Gannon et al.